How Alaska’s Population Will Change in the Next 20 Years

Each year, millions of Americans pack up and move to a new state – either for a job, family reasons, a change of climate, or any number of other reasons. Migration and natural population change resulting from births and deaths can cause significant demographic shifts, which have consequences for local economies and governments.

Negative or slow population growth can lead to weaker economic growth and fewer economic opportunities – which in turn can push more people out of a given state. Population decline can also mean reduced revenue for state governments and limited funding for public works and services and reduced ability to meet budgetary obligations. Here is a look at the states collecting the most in income tax.

According to a study conducted by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, Alaska’s population is projected to expand by 9.1% between 2020 and 2040 – an increase of 68,626 people. If the Cooper Center’s projections bear out, Alaska’s ranking as the third least populous state will remain unchanged, also taking into account population changes in other states.

The projected change is in keeping with the trend of the last decade. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of people living in Alaska climbed by 5.8%, or 41,097 people.

A full methodological explanation for how these projections were calculated can be found here.

Rank
Name
Projected 2020 to 2040 pop. change (%)
2020 population
2020 rank
2040 projected population
2040 rank

1
Texas
35.2
29,604,099
2
40,015,913
2

2
North Dakota
34.3
789,403
47
1,060,457
45

3
Utah
34.1
3,240,569
30
4,344,339
29

4
Florida
32.0
21,877,257
3
28,886,983
3

5
Colorado
31.7
5,843,359
20
7,692,907
17

6
Nevada
30.1
3,119,265
32
4,058,371
30

7
Washington
27.3
7,681,818
13
9,776,126
12

8
Arizona
26.1
7,268,694
14
9,166,279
14

9
Idaho
25.4
1,777,249
39
2,227,842
36

10
South Carolina
22.5
5,184,564
23
6,352,502
22

11
Oregon
21.0
4,267,534
27
5,164,041
24

12
North Carolina
19.8
10,568,033
9
12,658,927
7

13
Georgia
19.5
10,725,351
8
12,820,271
5

14
Delaware
17.9
987,393
45
1,164,344
44

15
South Dakota
17.0
891,688
46
1,043,032
47

16
Montana
15.0
1,074,635
43
1,236,304
43

17
California
14.9
40,438,640
1
46,467,001
1

18
Virginia
14.1
8,655,021
12
9,876,728
11

19
Tennessee
14.0
6,861,856
16
7,823,662
15

20
Minnesota
12.0
5,683,666
22
6,364,886
20

21
Nebraska
12.0
1,956,876
37
2,190,918
37

22
Hawaii
11.4
1,453,902
40
1,619,703
40

23
Maryland
11.1
6,161,345
19
6,842,902
19

24
Oklahoma
10.9
4,001,180
28
4,439,038
28

25
Massachusetts
10.9
6,982,092
15
7,742,628
16

26
Alaska
9.1
751,328
48
819,954
48

27
Louisiana
6.7
4,742,900
25
5,062,780
25

28
Iowa
6.5
3,184,240
31
3,392,783
32

29
Arkansas
5.9
3,038,491
33
3,217,535
33

30
Indiana
5.3
6,737,581
17
7,095,000
18

31
Wyoming
5.2
585,380
50
615,787
49

32
Kentucky
4.8
4,498,533
26
4,714,761
27

33
New York
4.2
20,031,150
4
20,873,488
4

34
New Jersey
4.2
9,088,074
11
9,470,012
13

35
Kansas
3.3
2,936,212
35
3,032,653
34

36
Missouri
3.2
6,161,471
18
6,359,970
21

37
New Hampshire
3.0
1,352,917
41
1,393,451
41

38
Alabama
3.0
4,911,278
24
5,056,796
26

39
Wisconsin
2.7
5,837,176
21
5,997,137
23

40
New Mexico
1.3
2,099,134
36
2,127,318
38

41
Ohio
0.4
11,705,262
7
11,751,540
9

42
Pennsylvania
-0.3
12,844,885
5
12,809,150
6

43
Michigan
-0.3
9,992,315
10
9,960,115
10

44
Rhode Island
-0.7
1,062,334
44
1,055,318
46

45
Maine
-0.9
1,338,780
42
1,326,159
42

46
Mississippi
-0.9
2,990,498
34
2,962,160
35

47
Connecticut
-1.4
3,593,542
29
3,542,707
31

48
Illinois
-3.1
12,791,188
6
12,397,564
8

49
Vermont
-3.4
622,868
49
601,865
50

50
West Virginia
-7.8
1,801,966
38
1,661,849
39

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