IMPACT ANALYSIS OF CONSTRUCTION OF THE TRANS-ALASKA PIPELINE ON THE ADMINISTRATION OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE IN ALASKA | Office of Justice Programs

Abstract

THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED BY UTILIZING AN UNDERLYING ECONOMIC BASE MODEL TO DEVELOP STATEWIDE POPULATION, WORK FORCE, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND OTHER ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS. A SET OF MATHEMATICAL AND PREDICTIVE RELATIONSHIPS WAS GENERATED BETWEEN THESE VARIABLES AND CRIMINAL ACTIVITY, USING PAST DATA. THUS, FUTURE CRIMINAL ACTIVITY COULD BE PREDICTED. A SIZEABLE AND ABRUPT INCREASE IN CRIME IS PREDICTED DURING THE PEAK CONSTRUCTION YEARS, 1975 TO 1977. THIS INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO BE CONCENTRATED IN URBAN AREAS, AND TO BE EXACERBATED BY A DECREASE IN MANPOWER AVAILABLE TO LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES. TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT LEVEL OF PROSECUTORIAL SERVICES, WHICH IS TERMED INADEQUATE, AN 80 PERCENT INCREASE IN PROSECUTORIAL CAPABILITY WOULD BE REQUIRED BY 1980. COURTS AND CORRECTIONS WILL BE SIMILARLY TAXED. IMPROVED DATA COLLECTION IS ALSO DEEMED IMPORTANT.